Welcome to Central Asia in Focus, a newsletter offering insight and analysis on events shaping the region’s political future. I’m Bruce Pannier. In this week’s edition: Kazakhstan conducted a national referendum on constructing the country’s first nuclear power plant, the court decision in the controversial trial of Kyrgyz journalists is expected soon, and more.
In the Region
Kazakhstan’s Referendum on Nuclear Power
On October 6, Kazakhstan conducted a national referendum on whether to construct the country’s first nuclear power plant (NPP), with some 71 percent of those who cast ballots voting in favor.
The country needs more electricity. There have been severe power outages for three consecutive winters caused by failing Soviet-era power plants.
Some 70 percent of Kazakhstan’s electricity is generated by coal-fired plants, many of which were built in the 1960s and are responsible for the worsening air pollution in cities around Kazakhstan.
However, when Kazakhstan was part of the Soviet Union, there were 456 nuclear tests conducted on Kazakh soil, and the effects of those tests continue to cause health problems for people (for more, listen to the most recent Majlis podcast).
This legacy has made some in Kazakhstan strongly opposed to using nuclear power.
Kazakhstan has been talking about building an NPP for more than a decade.
In January, President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev gave an interview to state media outlet Egemen Qazaqstan in which he signaled the time was approaching.
“Clean nuclear energy is very important for Kazakhstan,” Toqaev said. “This is a fundamental issue for the future of our economy.”
At a meeting with representatives of Kazakhstan’s scientific community in May, Toqaev said: “The final decision on the creation of nuclear energy will be made by the people in a national referendum.”
Public discussions were conducted in all 17 of Kazakhstan’s provinces and in major cities.
However, some complained these public discussions stressed the benefits of nuclear power, paying little attention to potential negative consequences.
A group of nongovernmental ecological organizations called Ecoforum wrote an open letter at the end of July complaining about interference from public officials in Ecoforum’s attempts to warn of the dangers of building an NPP.
Activists who spoke against building the NPP were detained.
By October 5, more than 30 people had been detained on charges of trying to organize unsanctioned rallies, or in extreme cases, trying to organize mass unrest.
More were detained on the day of the referendum.
Why It’s Important: It was clear the Kazakh government wanted this project, and that the majority of voters see the need for an NPP.
However, despite stating that the decision on whether to build an NPP would be left to the people, Kazakh authorities have resorted to the same tactics that preceded recent elections.
Requests of activists in several cities to hold public meetings in the days ahead of the referendum were denied by local authorities, while opponents of the NPP were detained ahead of the referendum and independent observers were removed from polling stations.
The worst unrest in Kazakhstan’s history happened in January 2022, sparked by popular resentment about the people’s wishes being ignored by the government.
The fact that one side of the nuclear power debate was not allowed to express their views will likely engender discontent among some in Kazakhstan, which could grow as the NPP project moves forward.
Court Decision Expected in Trial of 11 Kyrgyz Journalists
The verdict in the trial of 11 current and former journalists from the Temirov LIVE investigative reporting show is due soon.
The 11 were detained on January 16, 2024, and charged with “calls for active disobedience to the legal demands of government officials and for mass riots, as well as calls for violence against citizens.”
Temirov LIVE, which is hosted on YouTube, is known for reporting on corruption, especially the alleged corrupt activities of government officials and their relatives.
Bolot Temirov, the host and founder of the show, was detained in January 2022 on charges of narcotics possession, for which he was later acquitted.
Yet other charges were added while Temirov was in custody, and eventually he was found guilty of document fraud and deported from Kyrgyzstan to Russia in November 2022.
Temirov has since left Russia for Europe and has continued his programming from there.
The fate of the 11 journalists in custody has sparked appeals and complaints from international rights organizations.
Amnesty International released a statement this month calling on Kyrgyz authorities to “drop baseless charges against Temirov LIVE” journalists.
The Committee to Protect Journalists made a similar call in April 2024.
Why It’s Important: The legal case against these 11 journalists could easily be viewed as an attempt to pursue a political vendetta against a troublesome media outlet.
Bolot Temirov was detained two days after Temirov LIVE aired a program on corruption involving relatives of Kyrgyzstan’s security chief, Kamchybek Tashiev.
Temirov’s wife Makhabat Tazhibek Kyzy is one of the 11 journalists currently on trial.
In July 2024, during the journalists’ trial, linguistics experts for the state testified that phrases in Temirov’s program such as “fight for freedom” could be considered a call for mass unrest.
Prosecutors are asking that the 11 journalists be sentenced to six years in prison.
Majlis Podcast
The latest Majlis podcast looks at Kazakhstan’s national referendum to approve construction of a nuclear power plant.
It’s a controversial plan that is badly needed but faces stiff opposition.
The guests on this podcast are:
- Togzhan Kassenova, author of the widely acclaimed book Atomic Steppe: How Kazakhstan Gave Up The Bomb;
- Aya Renaud, an editor at RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, known locally as Azattyq; and
- Darkhan Umirbekov, digital editor at Azattyq, who is based in Astana.
What I’m Following
Russia Removes Taliban from Terrorist Group List
Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced on October 4 that it had taken the Taliban off Russia’s list of terrorist organizations.
Zamir Kabulov, the Russian special representative for Afghanistan, made the announcement, adding the Federal Security Service “and a number of other Russian departments,” took part in making the decision.
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan removed the Taliban from their lists of terrorist groups earlier this year.
Tajikistan Can’t Afford Its Own Electricity
Tajikistan’s state electricity company Barki Tojik announced on September 21 that power rationing would start on September 22.
RFE/RL’s Tajik Service, known locally as Ozodi, reports Tajikistan’s Sangtuda-1 hydropower plant (HPP) is currently operating at only 44 percent of its capacity of some 670 megawatts.
The reason is Russian companies Inter RAO and Federal Grid Company of Unified Energy System own a nearly 75 percent stake in Sangtuda-1 (Tajikistan owns 25 percent plus one share).
The original agreement with the Russian companies set a price for electricity from Sangtuda-1 which can be higher than the state-subsidized rates Barki Tojik charges.
Barki Tojik is currently unable to buy all the electricity Sangtuda-1 produces at full capacity, so winter power rationing started in early autumn this year.
Fact of the Week
According to the UN World Population Prospects 2024, Kazakhstan ranks among the countries with the highest elderly population.
A country is considered aging if more than seven percent of the population is 65 or older.
In Kazakhstan, some 8.8 percent of the population is above 65 years old.
Thanks for Reading
Thanks for reading Central Asia in Focus! I appreciate you sharing it with other readers who may be interested.
Feel free to contact me on X, especially if you have any questions, comments, or just want to connect about topics concerning Central Asia.
Until next time,
Bruce
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