Tajikistan’s Bokhtar project, a high-risk/high-reward venture to develop new hydrocarbon deposits, has long been a point of interest among energy giants.  In 2013, France’s TotalEnergies, Kazakhstan’s Tethys, and China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) each held about a one-third share in the project’s Production Sharing Contract (PSC).  However, as of January 2025, CNPC stands as the sole contractor upon completing the geophysical surveys of the hydrocarbon deposits in the designated PSC area.  In a landscape marked by financial risk and geopolitical tension, China’s growing presence in Tajikistan's energy sector is set to redefine the region’s economic future.

Tethys Petroleum has operated in Tajikistan since 2008, and signed a PSC with TotalEnergies and CNPC in 2013, with each company acquiring a one-third share in the project. Two years later, CNPC and Total demanded the withdrawal of Tethys from the project due to its financial struggles and mounting debt.  In 2017, international arbitration ruled in favor of Total and CNPC, which took Tethys out of the project. The Tajikistan government has not invested directly in the project.  Instead, it has authorized the project go-ahead to the three companies under the PSC agreement, with the right to receive a 30% share of any extracted oil and gas.

Total Energies Designated PSC area of Bokhtar for geophysical explorations for its hydrocarbon resources. 

The government in Dushanbe still holds a key role overseeing the project, including giving greater control over the initiative to CNPC.  In March 2024, the parliament of Tajikistan ratified the transfer of TotalEnergies’ shares to CNPC.  One month after that, CNPC launched a new project to identify the large volumes of oil and gas reserves within the Tajik part of the Afghan-Tajik depression, a geologically active region in the Afghan-Tajik basin.  Estimates foresee that 40% of the reserves in this area are in Tajikistan. 

For Dushanbe, there is a reason to prefer CNPC’s involvement. Unlike TotalEnergies and Tethys, CNPC is a state-owned giant with substantial financial resources that can tolerate funding risky large-scale energy projects. China’s state-backed financing system allows its companies, whether they are private or state-owned, to have an advantage over foreign competitors.  For instance, in the mining sector, Chinese state-backed firms receive funds from state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and Citic, as well as a network of 86 entities, comprising 26 Chinese government-linked organizations.

Given Tajikistan's economic constraints and reliance on foreign investments for its energy sector, CNPC's takeover of the project was likely appealing for Dushanbe. Tajikistan has faced pressures from China in the past, and therefore may have also taken regional politics into consideration.  On January 28, Tajikistan’s Main Geology Directorate announced that CNPC has completed the geophysical surveys of the hydrocarbon deposits of the Bokhtar region and begun processing the collected data.  With China’s CNPC now the only company involved in this project, when resource extraction begins, Beijing will inevitably wield significant influence in Tajikistan’s energy sector.

CNPC’s deep involvement in Tajikistan highlights the significance of risky investment environments, giving state-backed companies an edge.  Western companies like TotalEnergies might have been deterred by risks related to political instability or security concerns.  In contrast, CNPC, with the backing of the Chinese government and the military presence of China, appears to have been seen as a safer partner in the long run.  In an era of renewed protectionism and great-power strife, such dynamics could shape Central Asia for years to come.