A post-Soviet creation and success story, Russia’s Rosatom is a booming business made up of over 350 enterprises, ranging from energy production to nuclear power plant construction, weapons, supercomputers, and some totally new and strategic lines of effort.  While Russia is known to use energy coercively, most commonly through its oil and gas reserves, Moscow's global presence in the nuclear energy sector serves as another avenue for Russian energy influence and power. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy firm, is an especially important tool for Russia’s nuclear energy outreach. Now, Rosatom is expanding and diversifying, and looking to the Caspian region to shore up Moscow’s regional influence. 

Controlling 38% of the world’s uranium conversion and 46% of uranium enrichment capacity, Rosatom plays a crucial role in the global nuclear fuel cycle. At the moment, these are capabilities that no other nuclear energy firm can replicate. In 2022, Rosatom’s enriched uranium made up 30% of the European Union’s supplies and 23% purchased by U.S. utility companies. The Biden administration imposed a ban on Russian low-enriched uranium in 2024 that terminates in December 2040, although the current Trump administration’s outwardly nouvelle détente with Russia could bring the ban’s termination earlier than expected.

Rosatom is additionally involved in international construction and management of nuclear power plants (NPP), as well as constructing its proprietary style of reactors in countries including China, India, and more. The Russian state firm remains a notable source of income for Moscow, with $200 billion foreign portfolio generating $18 billion in revenue in 2024.

 A list of active Rosatom NPP construction projects in 2023, taken from Rosatom’s 2023 annual report

While Rosatom has been sanctioned and targeted at times by the West, its influence continues to grow, including by expanding its presence in the Caspian region through a variety of initiatives beyond nuclear power plants.

Russia has extensively lobbied in recent years to have Central Asian states build a major nuclear power plant using Rosatom services. However, perhaps due to long-standing cultural taboos and the destructive legacies from Soviet-era nuclear practices, or a desire to diversify energy relations, regional governments have hesitated to get involved with Rosatom. Uzbekistan is partnering with Rosatom to construct six small reactors, instead of the one large reactor that the Kremlin sought to build. Kyrgyzstan also now seems likely to work with Rosatom on a NPP. Armenia, long under strong Russian influence, remains the exception with a large Soviet-era NPP built in a seismically sensitive region that is jointly managed with Rosatom and overdue for replacement, although not by Rosatom.  

  Photo Source: Rosatom/ A Rosatom forum on wind energy held in Kyrgyzstan, 2024 

Rosatom has also been successful in other energy-related efforts, including hydro-power projects and new kinds of wind-energy projects under development in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.  Russia’s strong engagement and its monetization of energy generation and transmission in neighboring states remains a major source of political, economic, and security leverage.  Diversifying into new sources of energy generation will enable Moscow to maintain its role in regional power politics.

The following map displays the various Rosatom projects within the Caspian region. 

Beyond the Caspian

Outside of the eight countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Rosatom seeks to play an active and growing role in states neighboring the Caspian region, particularly China, Iran, and Türkiye. 

Rosatom continues to be a significant part of world-wide nuclear energy. It has a particularly strong presence in the Global South, at times capitalizing off the reluctance of Western nuclear energy firms to engage in turbulent regions such as the Sahel countries of West Africa. While some European countries canceled Russian agreements following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s war and the sanctions regime imposed on Russia appear to have done little to deter Rosatom’s expansion abroad, including with countries that have working relations with the United States and Europe, such as South Korae, India, Egypt, and Türkiye.

 Interest in nuclear energy is undergoing a renaissance that is being spurred by emerging technologies such as “Small Modular Reactors” and fusion reactors. Tech companies are investing in nuclear energy to power their AI data centers while countries in the Global South are seeking ways to sustain their growing population while mitigating carbon emissions. 

While policy makers are likely motivated by the desire to avoid the energy shortages the Caspian region is all too familiar with, nuclear energy partnerships are inherently geopolitical decisions, tying countries together for decades. There are unique opportunities for Western nuclear energy companies to expand further into the Caspian region. China, South Korea, and France are seeking to outbid Russia in constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear powerplant. But so far, Russia is off to an early lead in terms of its foothold in the region, one that could be a challenge to displace.