On October 5, the Majilis, Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament approved a decree on the Caspian Sea border. This bill, if approved by Kazakhstan’s senate, would ratify the agreement between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on the “delimitation of the Kazakh-Turkmen state border and delineation of adjacent areas of the fishing zones on the Caspian Sea.” It will finalize the process of delimitation on Kazakhstan’s southern border and thereby ensure fair regulations on subsurface use and fishing rights of the Caspian. If finalized, this will be the first bill in history to draw legal lines over the Caspian, and it signals potential development in the Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan Caspian Sea border challenges.

Due to its geographical importance, the Caspian Sea has major potential in international transit, and it could play a major role in reducing Europe's dependence on Russian exports, especially oil and gas. Formal delimitation of the Caspian Sea border would aid in the development of transportation infrastructure, formalize regulations on the North-South transport corridor and the East-West transport corridor, and it would increase the attractiveness of the region to investors. Transport hubs in Kazakhstan, such as the Aktau and Kuryk seaports, Khorgos dry port, and the Central Asia International Industrial Cooperation Center, and the Turkmenistan port of Turkmenbashi will greatly benefit from established borders and customs in the Caspian. Further, with established borders and the potential to establish formal Caspian trade routes, Turkmenistan’s Turkmenbashi port has the capability to become a necessary asset in interregional trade.

In June 2022, at the plenary session of the II Caspian Economic Forum, Kazakhstan’s Head of the Cabinet commented on the need to develop the Trans-Caspian transport routes, and eliminate time-consuming obstacles to trade. “Kazakhstan is ready to start practical joint actions to strengthen the region’s transit potential, … Today we agreed with my colleagues that we will start this work now, develop an appropriate roadmap and start expanding the potential of our transit routes.”

As Turkmenistan pursues membership in the Organization of Turkic States and pushes towards regional connectivity, the ratification of the Caspian Sea border would further enhance its role as a transit country and increase cooperation among Turkic states. Similarly, in January 2021, Turkmenistan also agreed to jointly develop with Azerbaijan a long-disputed Caspian hydrocarbon field. The signing of the memorandum on the Dostlug field was a significant signal of improving relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, but it also signaled a shift in Turkmenistan's foreign policy that in the past had avoided regional cooperation. The recent positive development over the Caspian border is yet another example of Turkmenistan's newfound willingness to promote regional connectivity and facilitate good neighborly relations.